Breakout WRs – Identifying the studs
This is a list of all the relevant WRs from each WR class over the past 7 years, and the ones highlighted in green have a top 24 finish (PPR) to their name. As you can see from the 2017-2021 classes, there are at least 4 top 25 WRs in each class. The 2019 and 2020 draft classes were loaded, and currently make up the majority of the top 10. From 2024’s current top 10 in ADP (Lamb, Hill, Jefferson, Chase, ARSB, AJB, Puka, Wilson, Adams, and Marvin Harrison Jr) 7 were drafted from 2019-2023. The exceptions include Tyreek Hill (2016), Davante Adams (2014) and Marvin Harrison Jr. (2024). Only 13 rookie WRs finished in the top 24 in their rookie season over the past 7 years, see chart below. All but 3 finished WR13+. The exceptions: Puka Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. The 3rd year breakouts seem to be common. The following WRs broke out in their 3rd season: Cooper Kupp (WR24, WR51, WR5), Chris Godwin (WR67, WR29, WR2), Deebo Samuel (WR32, WR96, WR3), Diontae Johnson (WR41, WR21, WR8) Hunter Renfrow (WR54, WR60, WR11), CeeDee Lamb (WR22, WR19, WR5), Brandon Aiyuk (WR35, WR35, WR15), Tee Higgins (WR28, WR24, WR18) Jerry Jeudy (WR47, WR85, WR22) and Nico Collins (WR86, WR77, WR12) The most likely 3rd year breakout candidates in 2024 are Garrett Wilson (WR21, WR26), Chris Olave (WR25, WR16) and Drake London (WR21, WR37) There are a couple of other players that have an outside chance, including: Christian Watson (WR41, WR68), George Pickens (WR39, WR30) Jameson Williams (WR154, WR82), Romeo Doubs (WR72, WR36), Jahan Dotson (WR51, WR56), Treylon Burks (WR78, WR123), Wan’Dale Robinson (WR115, WR53), Khalil Shakir (WR130, WR61) and John Metchie III (N/A, WR138) The following have potential to break out in their 4th year: Rashod Bateman (WR69, WR112, WR85), Elijah Moore (WR49, WR81, WR54), Josh Palmer (WR75, WR37, WR65) There are about 19 rookie WRs that could finish in the top 24, but realistically only about 6. Those names are: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman and Brian Thomas Jr. Finished Top 24 2017 (5) 2018 (6) 2019 (7) 2020 (7) 2021 (5) 2022 (2) 2023 (2) 2024 Cooper Kupp D.J. Moore A.J. Brown CeeDee Lamb Ja’Marr Chase Garrett Wilson Puka Nacua Chris Godwin Calvin Ridley Deebo Samuel Justin Jefferson Amon-Ra St. Brown Chris Olave Jordan Addison Mike Williams Christian Kirk D.K. Metcalf Brandon Aiyuk Jaylen Waddle JuJu Smith-Schuster Courtlard Sutton Diontae Johnson Tee Higgins DeVonta Smith Kenny Golladay D.J. Chark Marquise Brown Michael Pittman Jr. Nico Collins Michael Gallup Terry McLaurin Chase Claypool Hunter Renfrow Jerry Jeudy Had fantasy impact but never a top 24 season: Corey Davis Marquez Valdes-Scantling Mecole Hardman Henry Ruggs III Kadarius Toney Drake London Jaxon Smith-Njigba Marvin Harrison Jr. Curtis Samuel Tre’Quan Smith Parris Campbell Gabriel Davis Rashod Bateman Christian Watson Quentin Johnston Malik Nabers Zay Jones Justin Watson Darius Slayton Laviska Shenault Jr. Elijah Moore Geoge Pickens Zay Flowers Rome Odunze Josh Reynolds Van Jefferson Rondale Moore Jameson Williams Jonathan Mingo Brian Thomas Jr. Mack Hollins Gabriel Davis Josh Palmer Romeo Doubs Jayden Reed Xavier Worthy Noah Brown Darnell Mooney Jahan Dotson Rashee Rice Ricky Pearsall Donovan Peoples-Jones Treylon Burks Marvin Mims Jr. Xavier Legette Wan’Dale Robinson Tank Dell Keon Coleman Khalil Shakir Dontayvion Wicks Ladd McConkey John Metchie III Josh Downs Ja’Lynn Polk Demario Douglas Adonai Mitchell Jalin Hyatt Malachi Corley Cedric Tillman Jermain Burton Michael Wilson Roman Wilson Tre Tucker Jalen McMillan Tyler Scott Luke McCaffrey Troy Franklin Javon Baker Devontez Walker Finished Top 24 in rookie season Players Class of Rookie Season Finish Puka Nacua 2023 WR4 Ja’Marr Chase 2021 WR5 Justin Jefferson 2020 WR6 Jaylen Waddle 2021 WR13 Juju Smith-Schuster 2017 WR20 Amon-Ra St. Brown 2021 WR21 A.J. Brown 2019 WR21 Garrett Wilson 2022 WR21 CeeDee Lamb 2020 WR22 Calvin Ridley 2018 WR22 Jordan Addison 2023 WR23 Chase Claypool 2020 WR24 Cooper Kupp 2017 WR24 Total # of WRs drafted Total # of WRs drafted 2017 32 2018 34 2019 28 2020 35 2021 35 2022 28 2023 33 225 5.7%
Favorite Stats of the Week: July 12 edition
Here are some of my favorite stats that I’ve read this week: Tony Pollard in his first eight games of 2023: 6.7% – Avoided tackle rate 2.6 — Yards after contact per rush Pollard’s final nine 2023 games: 28.8% – Avoided tackle rate 3.2 — Yards after contact per rush (@jagibbs_23) Take Home Point: Pollard was still recovering from his late 2022 ankle injury early in 2023, but by the last 9 games he looked much better. Sleeper for 2024, great RB2 value for a guy who finished as the RB8 in 2022. Expecting one of biggest schematic changes this season to come from #Titans. Had 3+ WRs on the field just 58% of the time last season, 25th in NFL. Replace Derrick Henry with two space RBs Bring in Brian Callahan, whose Bengals had 3+ WRs on field 78% last season (3rd-most) Give Calvin Ridley $50M guaranteed, add Tyler Boyd, hang onto DeAndre Hopkins + Treylon Burks (@adamlevitan) Take Home Point: Values up for Pollard, Spears, Ridley, Hopkins, Boyd & Levis. I like Boyd as a late sleeper. The Cincinnati Bengals ran the 2nd and 4th highest% of 11-personnel over the last two seasons under Brian Callahan. Tyler Boyd had the 4th most targets from the slot last year (6th in 2022). Boyd is now with Callahan in Tennessee. Current ADP: WR83 Deep league alert (@DrewDavenportFF) Take Home Point: Callahan now in TEN, Tyler Boyd is basically free, and there’s a good chance he will be serviceable. Unless you’re in a 10 team league or super shallow, I wouldn’t leave your draft without Boyd. Catchable throw rate on attempts 10+ yards downfield Top 10: Tua Tagovailoa – 73.8% Jared Goff – 73.5% Brock Purdy – 73.3% Kirk Cousins – 71.8% Dak Prescott – 71.4% Jalen Hurts – 70.7% Lamar Jackson – 70.6% Joe Burrow – 69.7% Russell Wilson – 69.0% Patrick Mahomes – 68.7% Bottom 6: Justin Fields – 60.6% Baker Mayfield – 59.2% Bryce Young – 59% Joe Flacco – 58% Kyler Murray – 57.5% Will Levis – 56.7% (@FantasyDataPts) Take Home Point: Tua throws the best deep ball in the NFL. Tyreek & Waddle are top 10 WRs as a result, but don’t sleep on Malik Washington. I have no faith in OBJ. The bottom 6 is particularly concerning, especially for Kyler Murray and Will Levis. Murray got a monster in Marvin Harrison Jr., so maybe that boosts his deep throw rate. Levis has lots of weapons but struggles to throw a good deep ball plus his OLine is one of the worst in the league. Avoided tackle rate leaders at RB in 2023: 35.6% – Jaylen Warren 28.8% – James Conner 28.2% – De’Von Achane 26.0% – Tyjae Spears 25.8% – Raheem Mostert 25.6% – Kenneth Walker 25.0% – Khalil Herbert 24.3% – Bijan Robinson 24.0% – Travis Etienne 22.4% – Kyren Williams 22.1% – Christian McCaffrey 22.0% – Jahmyr Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) Take Home Point: Multiple lists have shown that Jaylen Warren is super elusive, and the Steelers upgraded their OLine. He’s a solid RB2/flex, and should get lots of work with Arthur Smith there. I love James Conner this year, great value. As is Tyjae Spears and Raheem Mostert. Achane is a hyper efficient stud but I have injury concerns. When on the field together through the first eight weeks: (Downs injured his knee in Week 9 and was notably less efficient from that point on) Targets 61 – Pittman 56 – Downs Receiving yards 473 – Downs 422 – Pittman PPR points 99.3 – Downs 93.2 – Pittman (@jagibbs_23) Take Home Point: Don’t sleep on Josh Downs. Richardson and then Minshew targeted him a ton before he suffered his knee injury. He should be 100% and a great WR3/flex option. The Colts offense should be pretty concentrated: AR, JT, Pittman, Downs & a sprinkle of Jelani Woods and Adonai Mitchell. Q: How does McLaughlin affect this? A: He’s competing with Blake Watson for the“joker” role. Jaleel is small and has had some big issues in pass protection, will be tough for him to carve out a snap share larger than 25-30%. (@coachspeakindex) Take Home Point: I’m a big fan of McLaughlin, very elusive and Javonte Williams’ knee injury was the worst possible combo of ACL tear. I have concerns that he may never return to preinjury level. Comments like these concern me, but as a RB3/flex, I think McLaughlin has sneaky upside Since 2011 RBs after ACL tears improved year 2 post-op in *Missed tackles forced/att +17% *Yards created/att +9% *Receptions/ game +39% Javonte may be undervalued depending on his pass game involvement (@FBInjuryDoc) Take Home Point: What Edwin posts about here is what I’ve experienced too. The first year after tearing their ACL for a RB is rough, and is the rule. Breece Hall last year was the exception. Look at the improvements. Breece could be even better, if he’s not the RB1 it’s only because he got injured, it’s him vs. CMC vs. Bijan. Henry & Saquon close too. I have concerns about Javonte Williams’ specific ACL injury, but in general he should be 30-40% better than last year when he finished as the RB29. In his rookie season he was the RB17. As mentioned above, McLaughlin is elusive but he’s only 5’7” and 187 lbs, he’s not big enough to handle a big workload. One of my fav stats-Barkley has run the ball a grand total of 19 times in his entire 6 yr career in the 4th Q up > 8 pts. PHI RBs have received 109 carries up>8 in the 4th just the L2 yrs alone. Add in the huge OL gap btw NY & [PHI] & he’s going to explode imo (@Clevta) Take Home Point: This year I’m a big fan of Saquon Barkley. He has a chance to finish as the RB1 if he doesn’t miss too many games due to injury, definitely top 5. The elite offensive line (top 3) should help, plus the garbage
Current NFL Player Injury Updates: Insights and Implications
In the world of professional football, player injuries are an unfortunate yet inevitable part of the game. Understanding the nature and severity of these injuries can offer insights into the recovery timelines and potential impacts on player performance. This article provides a comprehensive update on recent injuries sustained by current NFL players, offering a detailed look at each case. Name Date Injury Details Concern George Kittle 12/3/2023 Core Played through core muscle injury that required offseason surgery. Mild Greg Dulcich 1/8/24 Foot Dulcich has been dealing with swelling to his foot Moderate Tank Dell 4/27/2024 Leg Dell was involved in a shooting, he suffered a minor wound injury, likely flesh Mild Rome Odunze 5/13/24 Hamstring Hamstring tightness at rookie OTAs. Mild BIjan Robinson 5/20/2024 Ankle Ankle sprain, no details Mild Kyren Williams 5/21/2024 Foot Foot issue, no details Moderate Josh Jacobs 5/21/2024 Hamstring Recently suffered hamstring but was participating in OTAs Mild Tucker Kraft 5/21/2024 Pec Recently suffered pec tendon injury, likely grade 1 vs. 2 Moderate Xavier Worthy 5/22/2024 Hamstring Hamstring injury, unknown severity Mild Michael Pittman Jr. 5/22/2024 Knee Banged knees during OTAs, likely bone bruise Mild Luke Schoonmaker 5/22/2024 Hamstring Foot Shoulder Recently suffered hamstring but was participating in OTAs Injury prior to 2023 season Underwent shoulder surgery earlier in offseason Moderate Malaci Corley 5/29/24 Ankle Limping around but sounds like it is nothing to be concerned about Mild Breece Hall 5/29/24 Undisclosed Working in the rehab area during OTAs. Mild Audric Estime 5/30/24 Knee Reportedly underwent a ‘small’ menisectomy to likely address a small meniscal tear. Moderate George Kittle – Core Muscle Injury (December 3, 2023) George Kittle, the dynamic tight end for the San Francisco 49ers, played through a core muscle injury with roughly about 10 weeks to go in the 2023 season. Despite the discomfort, Kittle’s performance remained commendable, underscoring his resilience and dedication. The injury required offseason surgery, indicating that while significant enough to warrant surgical intervention, it is not expected to have long-term repercussions. Top 5-8 potential continues to remain a strong possibility for Kittle heading into 2024. Greg Dulcich – Foot Swelling (January 8, 2024) Greg Dulcich, the promising tight end for the Denver Broncos, has been dealing with foot swelling since early January 2024. This moderate injury has raised concerns about his ability to participate fully in training and preseason activities. Foot injuries can be particularly troublesome for football players due to the constant pressure and movement required in their positions. This is on top of the recurrent hamstring injuries that have plagued his NFL career so far. Dulcich has a ton of potential but needs to stay healthy in order to show what he can do on the field. Tank Dell – Leg Injury (April 27, 2024) Tank Dell, the wide receiver for the Houston Texans, was involved in a shooting incident, suffering a minor wound injury to his leg. Classified as mild, this flesh wound, while alarming, is not expected to impede his participation in the upcoming season. Mind you this was after his recovery from his season-ending ankle injury. Dell’s swift recovery will be crucial for the Texans, who are counting on his speed and agility on the field combining with Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs to serve as one of the best wide receiver groups in the NFL. Rome Odunze – Hamstring Tightness (May 13, 2024) During rookie OTAs, Rome Odunze experienced hamstring tightness. This mild injury is not uncommon in the early stages of intensive training. Proper rest and physiotherapy are essential to ensure that this tightness does not develop into a more severe strain. Odunze was able to return to the field a couple days ago which tells me this was likely a mild hamstring strain but it is definitely something worth monitoring and could bother him again in the future. Bijan Robinson – Ankle Sprain (May 20, 2024) Bijan Robinson, a potential top 3 fantasy running back, suffered an ankle sprain in May 2024. Classified as mild, the injury is not expected to sideline him for an extended period. Ankle sprains, if managed correctly with rest, ice, compression, and elevation (RICE), typically heal well. Robinson’s quick return to form will be crucial for maintaining his explosive playing style. Kyren Williams – Foot Issue (May 21, 2024) Kyren Williams, a talented running back with a history of soft tissue injuries, is dealing with a new foot issue that I deem to be moderate. The specifics of the injury have not been disclosed, but the classification suggests it requires careful management to prevent escalation. Foot injuries can severely impact a running back’s performance, making it essential for Williams to get this properly addressed so he is ready for the 2024 preseason. Josh Jacobs – Hamstring Injury (May 21, 2024) Josh Jacobs, the former Las Vegas Raiders and now Green Bay Packers’ running back, recently sustained a mild hamstring injury but has been participating in OTAs. Hamstring injuries can be tricky due to their tendency to recur if not fully healed. I fully expect him to be fine by the time preseason arises but it’s noteworthy. There’s a good chance he is in a RBBC this year in Green Bay. Tucker Kraft – Pectoral Tendon Injury (May 21, 2024) Tucker Kraft, the Green Bay tight end, suffered a pectoral tendon injury, likely between grade 1 and 2, classifying it as moderate. Pectoral injuries can limit a player’s ability to block and catch, essential skills for a tight end. Kraft’s recovery will involve targeted strength training and physiotherapy to ensure a complete recovery without compromising his functional performance. Xavier Worthy – Hamstring Injury (May 22, 2024) Xavier Worthy, a wide receiver for the Kansas City Chiefs, is dealing with a hamstring injury of unknown severity. Given the pivotal role of speed and agility in his game, hamstring health is critical. Don’t freak out about this yet but this is definitely an injury to make note of. Michael Pittman Jr. – Knee Injury (May 22, 2024)
